Jonathan Diggines, CEO of Enterprise Ventures (“EV”), the North of England VC and private equity house was speaking yesterday at its latest RisingStars Growth Fund portfolio seminar, held in Manchester.
He forecast that base rates were likely to fall further: the 1.5% cut to 3% last week was a violent change of strategy for the Bank of England, which had previously focused on controlling inflation. The threat of inflation has not gone away. Has the Bank been leaned on? The problem facing the UK is now not recession, which has already arrived.
Even if your money is only costing 3%, or less, people are asking “why pay for a house or any capital asset today if you fear that it will be worth less tomorrow?”
The problem now facing us is deflation.
Just as not enough was done to control the asset bubble over the past five years, there is now a serious risk that action will not be taken quickly enough to protect asset values, which are now in freefall – too little too late.
The 3% base rate means money now appears cheap. In the 1990’s recession, money was expensive – 15% base rate at its peak - but it was far more readily available, compared to now.
Diggines forecasts that in 2009:-
? UK economic data will get worse,
? UK Government revenues will plunge,
? pressure will build, once again, for action,
? just like the banks in 2008, businesses will be seeking to strengthen balance sheets through new equity fundraisings.
“If the UK economy is controlled, like a car, with three pedals, the Bank of England has released the brakes by dropping interest rates and has activated the clutch, allowing the pound to fall relative to other currencies.
The Government is now talking about stimulating growth through increasing public expenditure in capital programmes. This is too long term, it lacks focus and there must be questions about delivery. It is not the right way forward.
The UK economy will stall unless the accelerator is used – rapidly and firmly – through real, tangible tax cuts. There is a lot of talk now of various options. Cut Council Tax? Increase Tax credits? Reduce VAT? No. The cuts must apply to direct taxes – income tax and corporation tax, and must be sufficiently large to make a real difference to those who will work to pull the UK out of this hole”.
There is great pressure on the banks to lend just now. But lending – senior debt or mezzanine - can only take a business so far. People will come to see that there is a real requirement for equity finance - and tremendous opportunities will unfold from new private equity raisings, not only for larger businesses, but also for the UK’s vital SME sector.
Amidst all this, at the RisingStars Growth Fund portfolio seminar, the clear conclusion reached was that this is not the time to reduce levels of investment in new technology. There is evidence to suggest that investment by institutions in new technology has more than halved globally over the past twelve months, and could halve again in 2009.
Diggines advocates that if the UK economy is to grow and outperform its global competition, this alarming trend must be reversed.
“The dogma is that technology investments don’t make money. I say: we are now in a New World, and past performance is no guide to the future. UK growth will not come from financial engineering: the biggest gains will come from new technologies that will create and fuel demand in world markets. The UK has the skills – capital is required now to exploit them”.